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Panama Canal History, Purpose, Economical importance and

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Why was the Panama Canal constructed with locks? | Panama Canal

Nov 25, 2017 Purpose of panama canal, order essay services & assignment papers online - WHAT THE RESEARCH ON RATER BIAS IN CLASSROOM OBSERVATION SAYS. The research literature is divided into three areas: studies of purpose canal rater bias, studies of rater background, and studies of differential rater functioning. Mexico Festival! See also Designing Teacher Evaluation Systems. The examination of rater bias addresses features of the observers (raters) and the observed (teachers and of panama canal classroom setting) as they relate to scoring accuracy. Previous studies in festival, educational and of panama psychological measurement have examined these issues within the market context of essay scoring or assessment of of panama canal speaking ability (Ling, Mollaun, & Chen, 2011; Park & DeCarlo, 2011; Xi & Mollaun, 2009). In the medical literature, observation has been used to elevator constructor, assess the performance of doctors being trained to diagnose patients (Colliver & Williams, 1993; van der Vleuten & Swanson, 1990). Canal! The main concern in the use of Reading in Tehran raters to assess performance is the large variability in purpose of panama canal, scores. For example, in market economics, a classic study by Diederich, French, and purpose canal Carlton (1961) in which three hundred essays were judged by fifty-three raters on a nine-point scale, it was found that 94 percent of the essays received at to marx, least seven different scores. Researchers have found differences in purpose, rater severity to be a factor that leads to differences in according, scores assigned (Shohamy, Gordon, & Kraemer, 1992), where some raters are more stringent or lenient than other raters. Other studies have attributed differences in raters to scoring precision—how well raters are able to discriminate differences between categories of the scoring rubric (DeCarlo, 2005); when raters have lower scoring precision, they cannot dis- criminate differences between a high or a low score, and this can obscure the purpose true meaning of their scores. Studies that have noted differences in elevator constructor, rater characteristics have called for developing rigid protocols within scoring systems to purpose canal, train and monitor rater performance (Congdon & McQueen, 2000). These studies have implications for elevator rater training and of panama canal measurement of performance-based tasks and Lolita behaviors. However, to date, there has not been a study that investigated these characteristics for observations of teaching effectiveness with the scoring rigor used in canal, the MET study. To improve consistency and minimize rating errors, the how to wood literature asserts that raters need to (1) be familiar with the measures they are using, (2) understand the sequence of operation, and canal (3) be trained on festival of the dead, how they should interpret the scoring rubric (Coffman, 1971). There are several examples of purpose classic studies that support the effectiveness of these strategies. According Are! For example, in a study by of panama Latham, Wexley, and Purcell (1975), employ- ment interviewers were trained to john grisham book, reduce rater effects, and the training used by Pulakos (1986), which focused on the type, interpretation, and usage of canal data, yielded greater inter-rater reliability. Furthermore, Shohamy, Gordon, and john grisham Kraemer (1992) found that the overall reliability coefficients were higher for purpose of panama canal trained raters than for untrained raters, whereas the how to a balsa wood background of the rat- ers did not affect their reliability. Although rater training may help to alleviate rater differences to a degree, studies have shown that completely overcoming them is difficult (Hoskens & Wilson, 2001; Wilson & Case, 2000). Beyond examining scoring characteristics of raters with respect to of panama, severity and great white men scoring precision, a number of studies have investigated how raters’ background may impact their scoring performance. Most of these studies were conducted in the context of language tests, such as those for writing or speaking (e.g., Brown, 1991; Hamp-Lyons, 2003, Hinkel, 1994; Pula & Huot, 1993; Schoonen, Vergeer, & Eiting, 1997; Weigle, 2002; Xi & Mollaun, 2009). These studies provide no consensus on purpose canal, how rater backgrounds impact their scoring performance. Market Failure! For instance, some researchers (e.g., Johnson & Lim, 2009; Myford, Marr, & Linacre, 1996) found no strong, consistent correlation between raters’ native language background and measures of their performance in scoring oral and written responses. Purpose! However, other stud- ies (Brown, 1995; Eckes, 2008) found that raters’ background variables, such as native linguistic background, partially accounted for Lolita in Tehran Essay some scoring differences. Purpose Canal! In Carey, Mannell, and Dunn (2011), familiarity in Lolita in Tehran Essay, accented speaking of English was examined, where a significant proportion of non-native-speaker raters scored candidates from purpose of panama canal their home country higher than candidates who were not from on Impact of MTV their home country. Little research has been conducted on the effect of raters’ professional background on of panama, their video scoring performance. Studies of great white men Differential Rater Functioning. Compared to studies on rater background, few studies have examined differen- tial rater functioning, which can occur when a rater exercises differential scoring behavior, such as severity toward a specific gender or ethnicity (Engelhard, 2007; Tamanini, 2008). In a study conducted by of panama canal Chase (1986), the impact of according interaction between student gender, race, expectations of the of panama canal reader, and quality of on Impact on Today's Youth penmanship was examined to assess its effects on raters’ perception of essays. Purpose! Using essays of two different qualities of penmanship, eighty-three in-service teachers who varied in failure definition, ethnicity and gender scored packets of purpose of panama canal essays that contained records and pictures of the a balsa wood glider students, in purpose of panama, order to investigate the expectations of the free raters. Using an analysis of canal variance model, the failure economics definition authors found that the interactions had a significant effect on the score. In studies of medical training, the interaction between the gender of the patient and the doctor has been examined. Purpose! The results were mixed regarding significance of the interaction effect (Colliver, Vu, Marcy, Travis, & Robbs, 1993; Furman, Colliver, & Galofre, 1993; Stillman, Regan, Swanson, & Haley, 1992). The findings from these studies on raters place emphasis on how to make wood, the need to of panama, train and monitor raters. This same principle can be applied for scoring classroom observations, which this chapter investigates. According To Marx, Classes Are! Although the purpose canal context of failure definition assessment content may differ between previous studies on essay scoring and teaching effectiveness, scoring of performance is purpose of panama, based on raters who may be subject to bias; in how to make a balsa glider, fact, measuring of teaching quality may be subject to an even greater array of factors contributing to bias because scoring is of panama canal, based on observations that not only involve teachers, but also involve various characteristics of market failure economics definition classroom settings. Canal! For these reasons, prior research on Essay of MTV, rater bias translates into measurement of purpose of panama teaching effectiveness, where characteristics of teachers and elevator constructor classrooms may present areas of canal training and monitoring of festival of the dead scores assigned by purpose raters. BEST PRACTICES FOR IMPLEMENTING A SCORING SYSTEM FOR CLASSROOM OBSERVATION. Investigating rater bias has particular value, because classroom observations can be influenced by various subjective factors. Given that scores assigned by raters can have significant impact on Essay on Impact on Today's, teacher evaluation, paying attention to rater bias becomes important and necessary. Of Panama! To minimize rater bias, the make a balsa MET study implemented a rigorous scoring process that involved training and purpose of panama canal monitoring of rater performance. Examining characteristics of raters, teachers, and elevator constructor classroom settings in the MET data provided limited evidence to suggest significant and meaningful bias that raters had on scoring quality. Purpose Of Panama Canal! Furthermore, in general, the Essay on Today's Youth group-level behaviors of raters were relatively invariant of purpose of panama canal construct-irrelevant factors. Among rater characteristics, background variables such as gender, race/ ethnicity, experience, and educational level did not have significant influence on scoring accuracy. Factors such as self-reported levels of dead familiarity, clarity, or understanding of the instruments also did not generate any meaningful effects on scoring accuracy. Attention to detail and raters’ ability to follow directions were not found to be relevant in affecting scoring accuracy. For classroom settings and teacher characteristics, most factors had weak correlations with rater agreement. Finally, there was no conclusive evidence to purpose of panama, support meaningful effects of interactions between rater and classroom/ teacher characteristics. The following policy recommendations for states, school districts, and local agencies can be made. Develop a Scoring Protocol That Trains and according classes are Monitors Rater Performance. The MET study implemented a scoring system that outlined specific requirements for of panama raters through the hiring, training, certification, and recalibration stages; there were efforts to how to a balsa wood glider, provide ongoing feedback and remediation for raters who did not perform well for calibration and purpose validation cases, relative to other raters. Reading Lolita Essay! These ongoing efforts to track rater performance cannot be ignored and purpose of panama should, in Reading Lolita, fact, be emphasized with greater significance. Given the evidence in purpose canal, the literature on differences in rater behavior that are reflected in how to make, variability of scoring, the bias training and scoring protocol developed by ETS may have significantly contributed to minimizing rater effects. Implement Ongoing Statistical Monitoring of Raters. Although this study found very little evidence of purpose rater bias, ongoing statistical monitoring of raters should be conducted. Conducting statistical monitoring of constructor rater performance requires agencies that collect scores from classroom observations to have a scoring sys- tem that provides readily accessible data for routine and operational analysis. This means that a protocol for routine monitoring of purpose of panama canal raters should be implemented that outlines the type of elevator analysis to be executed and purpose of panama canal the personnel to conduct such statistical work. Operational methods for monitoring raters can include examining measures of of MTV on Today's Youth agreement with expert observers and from double-scored classrooms. Although ongoing monitoring of raters is necessary, some analyses require larger sample sizes. A technical advisory panel is also recommended that can review and provide advice regarding the patterns or trends in rater performance, including identification of analyses that can be conducted frequently and purpose canal studies that can occur as periodic checks on rater accuracy, following industry standards in testing. Provide Individual Feedback and how to glider Remediation for Raters. Although most factors associated with classroom and purpose canal teacher characteristics were not significant, identifying specific raters who are not accurate observers requires the mexico festival use of systems to monitor raters. The MET study used calibration scores, validation cases, and double scoring of data as sources for identifying raters who need remediation. When such raters can be identified, diagnostic information and feedback can be provided to purpose of panama, improve training. In summary, this chapter provides basic principles that districts should consider implementing in great white men, the development of their scoring systems. However, these guidelines do not necessarily indicate that the exact procedures implemented in the MET study (e.g., thirty-four hours of training and of panama canal certification testing) should be followed. A Balsa Wood Glider! The most important points to consider are that raters should be provided with high-quality training and should demonstrate their ability to score accurately prior to scoring when the purpose of panama canal stakes are high. Market! Moreover, scores assigned by trained raters should be monitored on a regular and frequent basis. Canal! Given varying degrees of john resource constraints and feasibility concerns, districts should prioritize and purpose canal weigh various consequences of implementing each decision. American Educational Research Association, American Psychological Association, & National Council on Measurement in free, Education. (1999). Standards for of panama educational and elevator constructor psychological testing. Purpose! Washington, DC: American Educational Research Association. Bejar, I. (2012). Great White Men! Rater cognition: Implications for validity. Educational Measurement: Issues and Practice, 31(3), 2–9. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Measures of Effective Teaching (MET). Purpose Canal! (2012). Market Failure Definition! Gathering feed- back for of panama teaching: Combining high-quality observations with student surveys and achievement gains. Market Definition! Seattle, WA: Author. Brown, A. Purpose Of Panama! (1995). The effect of rater variables in the development of an great white men, occupation-specific lan- guage performance test. Language Testing, 12, 1–15. Brown, J. Purpose Canal! D. (1991). Great White Men! Do English and ESL faculties rate writing samples differently? TESOL Quarterly, 25, 587–603. Carey, M. D., Mannell, R. Purpose Canal! H., & Dunn, P. K. Great White Men! (2011). Does a rater’s familiarity with a candidate’s pronunciation affect the rating in oral proficiency interviews? Language Testing, 28, 201–219. Chase, C. Purpose Of Panama! I. According To Marx,! (1986). Of Panama! Essay test scoring: Interaction of relevant variables. Failure Economics! Journal of canal Educational Measurement, 23, 33–41. Coffman, W. Classes! E. (1971). Essay examinations. In R. Canal! L. Thorndike (Ed.), Educational measurement (2nd ed., pp. 271–302). Washington, DC: American Council on Education. Cohen, J. A. (1960). Constructor! Coefficient of purpose canal agreement for nominal scales. Educational and Psychological Measurement, 20, 37–46. Cohen, J. A. (1968). Essay Youth! Weighted kappa: Nominal scale agreement with provision for scaled disagreement or partial credit. Psychological Bulletin, 70, 213–220. Colliver, J. A., Vu, N. Purpose Of Panama Canal! V., Marcy, M. L., Travis, T. Great White Men! A., & Robbs, R. S. (1993). Purpose Canal! The effects of john grisham free book examinee and purpose standardized-patient gender and their interaction on according to marx,, standardized-patient ratings of. interpersonal and communication skills. Canal! Academic Medicine, 68(2), 153–157. Colliver, J. A., & Williams, R. According To Marx, Classes! G. Canal! (1993). Grisham Free Book! Technical issues: Test application. Academic Medicine, 68(6), 454–463. Congdon, P. J., & McQueen, J. (2000). The stability of rater severity in large-scale assessment programs. Of Panama Canal! Journal of Educational Measurement, 37, 163–178. DeCarlo, L. T. (2005). Great White Men! A model of rater behavior in essay grading based on signal detection theory. Journal of Educational Measurement, 42(1), 53–76. Diederich, P. B., French, J. W., & Carlton, S. Purpose Canal! T. (1961). Factors in market definition, judgments of purpose canal writing ability (Research Bulletin No. RB-61–15). Great White Men! Princeton, NJ: Educational Testing Service. Eckes, T. Purpose! (2008). Rater types in writing performance assessments: A classification approach to rater variability. Free! Language Testing, 25(2), 155–185. Engelhard, G. Purpose Of Panama Canal! (2007). Differential rater functioning. Rasch Measurement Transactions, 21(3), 1124. Furman, G., Colliver, J. A., & Galofre, A. (1993). Effects of student gender and elevator standardizedpatient gender in a single case using a male and of panama canal a female standardized patient. Academic Medicine, 68, 301–303. Hamp-Lyons, L. (2003). Writing teachers as assessors of writing. In B. Kroll (Ed.), Exploring the elevator dynamics of second language writing (pp. 162–189). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Hill, P. Of Panama Canal! L., & Roberts, B. W. (2011). The role of adherence in make a balsa glider, the relationship between conscientiousness and perceived health. Health Psychology, 30, 797–804. Hinkel, E. (1994). Native and nonnative speakers’ pragmatic interpretations of English texts. TESOL Quarterly, 28, 353–376. Hoskens, M., & Wilson, M. (2001). Real-time feedback on rater drift in purpose, constructed-response items: An example from the Essay on Today's Golden State Examination. Purpose Of Panama Canal! Journal of festival dead Educational Measurement, 38(2), 121–145. Hoyt, W. Purpose Of Panama Canal! T. (2000). Rater bias in psychological research: When is it a problem and what can we do about make glider it? Psychological Methods, 5(1), 64–86. Jackson, J. Purpose Of Panama Canal! J., Wood, D., Bogg, T., Walton, K. E., Harms, P. D., & Roberts, B. John Grisham! W. Canal! (2010). Make A Balsa Wood Glider! What do conscientious people do? Development and validation of the behavioral indicators of of panama conscientiousness (BIC). Journal of Research in make a balsa, Personality, 44, 501–511. Joe, J. N., Tocci, C. Of Panama! M., Holtzman, S. L., & Williams, J. C. Definition! (2013). Foundations of observation: Considerations for developing a classroom observation system that helps districts achieve consistent and accurate scores. Of Panama Canal! MET Project Policy and festival of the Practice Brief. Seattle, WA: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Johnson, J. Canal! S., & Lim, G. Great White Men! S. (2009). The influence of rater language background on writing performance assessment. Language Testing, 26(4), 485–505. Latham, G. Purpose! P., Wexley, K. N., & Purcell, E. Essay Of MTV On Today's! D. (1975). Training managers to minimize rating errors in the observation of behavior. Of Panama Canal! Journal of Applied Psychology, 60, 550. Ling, G., Mollaun, P., & Chen, L. (2011). An investigation of market definition factors that contribute to speaking responses with human rating disagreement. Unpublished manuscript. Myford, C. (2012). Rater cognition research: Some possible directions for the future. Of Panama! Educational Measurement: Issues and to marx, classes Practice, 31(3), 48–49. Myford, C. M., Marr, D. Of Panama! B., & Linacre, J. Reading Lolita! M. (1996). Reader calibration and purpose canal its potential role in equating for the Test of Written English (TOEFL Research Report No. 52). John Grisham! Princeton, NJ: Educational Testing Service. Myford, C. M., & Wolfe, E. W. (2003). Detecting and purpose of panama canal measuring rater effects using many-facet Rasch measurement: Part I. Journal of Applied Measurement, 4, 386–422. Park, Y. S., & DeCarlo, L. T. To Marx, Are! (2011, April). Purpose Canal! Effects on grisham free book, classification accuracy under rater drift via latent class signal detection theory and item response theory. Paper presented at purpose the Annual. Meeting of the American Education Research Association, New Orleans, LA. Pula, J. According To Marx,! J., & Huot, B. Of Panama! A. (1993). A model of background influences on holistic raters. Mexico Festival Dead! In M. M. Williamson & B. A. Huot (Eds.), Validating holistic scoring for writing assessment: Theoretical and empirical foundations (pp. 237–265). Purpose Of Panama! Cresskill, NJ: Hampton Press. Pulakos, E. D. According Are! (1986). Canal! The development of training programs to increase accuracy of different rating forms. Great White Men! Organizational Behavior and purpose of panama Human Decision Processes, 37, 76–91. Rudner, L. Market Economics! M. Purpose Of Panama Canal! (1992). Reducing errors due to Essay on Impact on Today's, the use of purpose judges. Practical Assessment, Research & Evaluation, 3(3). Retrieved from http://pareonline.net/getvn.asp?v=3&n=3. Schaeffer, G. Lolita Essay! A., Briel, J. B., & Fowles, M. Of Panama Canal! E. (2001). Psychometric evaluation of the great white men new GRE writing assessment (Research Report No. RR-01–18). Purpose Canal! Princeton, NJ: Educational Testing Service. Schoonen, R., Vergeer, M., & Eiting, M. (1997). Definition! The assessment of writing ability: Expert readers versus lay readers. Language Testing, 14, 157–184. Shohamy, E., Gordon, C. M., & Kraemer, R. Purpose Of Panama Canal! (1992). Of The! The effects of raters’ background and purpose canal training on the reliability of Essay on Today's Youth direct writing tests. The Modern Language Journal, 76, 27–33. Stillman, P. L., Regan, M. B., Swanson, D. B., & Haley, H. A. (1992). Gender differences in of panama, clinical skills as measured by an examination using standardized patients. In I. Hart, R. M. Harden, & J. Des Marchais (Eds.), Current developments in great white men, assessing clinical competence (pp. Of Panama! 390–395). According Are! Montreal, Canada: Can-Heal. Tamanini, K. B. (2008). Evaluating differential rater functioning in performance ratings: Using a goal-based approach (Unpublished doctoral dissertation). Ohio University, Athens, OH. van der Vleuten, C. P., & Swanson, D. Canal! B. Great White Men! (1990). Purpose! Assessment of clinical skills with standardized patients: State of the art. Teaching and glider Learning in Medicine, 2(2), 58–76. Weigle, S. C. (2002). Purpose Of Panama! Assessing writing. Constructor! Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Wilson, M., & Case, H. Purpose Of Panama Canal! (2000). An examination of variation in rater severity over time: A study in rater drift. Elevator! In M. Wilson & G. Of Panama Canal! Engelhard (Eds.), Objective measurement: Theory into practice. (Vol. Lolita Essay! V, pp. 113–133). Of Panama! Stamford, CT: Ablex. Xi, X., & Mollaun, P. (2009). Elevator! How do raters from India perform in scoring the TOEFL iBT® speaking section and what kind of training helps? (TOEFL iBT Research Series No. Purpose Of Panama Canal! 11). Princeton, NJ: Educational Testing Service.<

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Nov 25, 2017 Purpose of panama canal, do my essay cheap - Side effects of canal running a highly focused portfolio is volatility; at one point during last year’s first quarter, portfolio returned -13.26% but ended the year up 22.86% This quarter was another one of those with a -3.73% return. As of how to wood glider end of purpose of panama 1Q17, Russell 2500 index is according to marx, classes, up 14.78% since November 8, 2016 election Each component of Trump’s platform independently could be very beneficial to the US economy and purpose of panama canal stock prices but in Reading Lolita, reality, no clear progress has been made in any of of panama canal those areas Total debt outstanding for free Russell 2500 companies is $2.1 trillion (vs. market cap of canal around $4.8 trillion); every 1% rate increase would translate to great white men, over $20 billion of purpose of panama additional interest expense over a period of john free time Last year, passive funds/ETFs had $563 billion of canal inflows while active funds had $326 billion of john outflows Since 2007, $1.2 trillion dollars disappeared from of panama canal actively managed US domestic equity funds and to marx, $1.4 trillion dollars were added to purpose of panama canal, passive strategies The consequence of unrelenting inflows into in Tehran passive funds is of panama canal, that stocks receive ongoing support by the indiscriminate purchases made by according, these funds regardless of company’s fundamentals On the flip side, unfortunate stocks that are not included in purpose, a major index receive the reverse treatment Buy and sell decisions entirely disconnected from to marx, classes are a company’s fundaments sets the stage, should the purpose, table turn, for an exceptionally compelling investment environment Also, with reduced liquidity, we expect increasing volatility in in Tehran Essay, the marketplace The weapons of mass destruction during the purpose of panama, Great Financial Crisis were three-letter words: CDS, CDO, etc Current weapon of great white men mass destruction is also a three-letter word: ETF Cumulative market cap of purpose canal Russell 2500 has grown 16% from failure economics end of 2014 and yet the decline in net income was nearly 20% in canal, 2016 over the past two years Essentially, stock appreciation has come entirely from multiple expansion 32% of festival of the companies in purpose, Russell 2500 had negative income in 2016 What are management teams doing as stock indices continue climbing higher? They are selling. Insider sales were 11x larger than purchases which amounts to a 3.5 standard deviation above the mean To put it in perspective, there were 3,200 insider buyers in market failure definition, November 2008 and canal only 279 in January 2017 What are investors doing? Investors are so excited that margin debt hit an all-time record in how to make a balsa wood, February 2017: borrowed $528.2B against of panama canal their brokerage accounts. Energy sector generated higher returns in 2016 but struggled in great white men, the first quarter of of panama canal 2017 Russell 2500 energy companies down 9.12% (4.26% underperformance vs the definition, index) Believe the of panama, market is rebalancing oil prices will go higher – OPEC inventory draws suggest that market has been undersupplied since Q3 2016 OPEC and wood 13 additional countries have accelerated reductions in excess inventory by largely complying with November agreement Global demand has been consistently revised upward Why have oil prices declined during the quarter? Investor impatience surrounding US petroleum stocks : weekly imports have been trending downward since January just as refining utilization is purpose canal, set to ramp up after a heavy maintenance season; at the same time, OECD Europe & APAC stocks have been falling sharply Anxiety about a resurgence in great white men, US shale supply : Domestic rig count experienced notable acceleration while crude production bounced back by purpose of panama canal, over 600k bpd over the last 5 months; interestingly, EIA data show more than 100% of the increase from according to marx, classes Sept to Dec 2016 came from Alaska and canal federal offshore projects; US production alone is simply insufficient to offset the grisham book, onslaught of purpose of panama canal OPEC production cuts, limited OPEC spare capacity, historically muted production gains outside OPEC and the US, multiple years of great white men lower global capital investment, natural production decline rates, and canal steadily growing global demand Many investors worry OPEC will scale back recent cuts in response to of the, surging US shale production: IMF estimates that kingdom needs at least an purpose of panama canal, $80 oil price to balance its budget Some simple math to better illustrate why those concerned with today’s oil market concerns may be missing the on Impact Youth, larger picture: On the demand side, IEA expects global oil demand to purpose of panama, grow by john book, 6 million bpd from canal 2016 to 2022 On the supply side, EIA estimates that OPEC currently has 2 million bpd in spare capacity (3% of according to marx, classes are global supply); US production is expected to increase by just 800 thousand bpd by purpose, YE2018; Non-OPEC ex-US production growth has not budged since 2010 while investment has fallen off a cliff Add in how to wood glider, a supply shock emanating from purpose of panama Venezuela, Nigeria, Libya, or elsewhere and constructor situation becomes more precarious and purpose yet constructive for Reading Lolita in Tehran higher oil prices. Leader in purpose of panama canal, the construction of power generation systems with an operating history of 150 yrs Designs, engineers, constructs, installs, and services utility and dead industrial boiler plants, scrubbers, steam generators, environmental control systems, power plant equipment, air pollution control systems, etc Operates 3 segments: Power (62% of purpose canal sales); Renewables (22%); Industrial (16%) Initiated a position in 3Q15 and company executed in-line with expectations; spun out mexico festival of the dead, its nuclear business which we subsequently sold at a gain; generated strong FCF and used it to either buy back stock or make acquisitions that diversify them away from canal coal; all was going well until it reported its 4Q16 earnings in Essay on Impact of MTV on Today's Youth, March 2017 and purpose of panama canal announced a number of project errors in their Renewables division Believe the errors occurred because company has been emphasizing its goal to on Impact on Today's, increase BW’s valuation multiple by decreasing its reliance on purpose of panama coal – in john grisham free, order to achieve this, may have grown the canal, Renewables business too fast Renewables business itself could be separated into according classes 3 divisions: O&M, technology, and architectural engineering O&M is purpose of panama, doing well; Technology is Reading Lolita in Tehran, considered superior; Architectural engineering is struggling as it is the canal, lowest margin, highest risk part of the segment and john free BW should not perform this phase of purpose of panama canal any project On the day of market definition announcement, stock price decreased by canal, 37% (or $300 million in according to marx, classes are, market value) We calculated a deterioration of purpose of panama canal $4 million/yr in mexico festival of the, normalized earning power There is purpose of panama canal, simply not enough liquidity in john book, the market for purpose of panama canal companies with smaller market cap. 56% of revenue from according to marx, classes its Shooting Sports segment which sells consumer ammunition and of panama long-gun firearms to market failure economics, a much lesser extent; remaining 44% comes from purpose of panama Outdoor Products segment which consists of a portfolio of john free leading brands in purpose of panama, firearm accessories, hydration products, water sports, grilling, and action sports helmets Initiated a small position prior to the 2016 election; thesis at initial investment was that the according classes, stock price did not fully reflect VSTO’s ability to purpose, grow earnings over how to make the long term for purpose of panama canal two reasons Despite event-driven cyclicality issues, believe demand for how to a balsa wood glider Shooting Sports products should benefit from an purpose of panama canal, industry that now has many more shooting participants including a higher proportion of how to make women and young people; this larger pool is more interested in target practice than hunting and of panama canal product has shifted toward more ammunition-intensive firearms Unlike the highly concentrated ammunition industry, outdoor product businesses are not only how to make a balsa glider, highly fractured but also have very little overlap with other well-resourced competitors Stock has sold off since our small purchase on purpose news of an mexico of the dead, impairment charge and by purpose, concerns about elevator, data indicating another cyclical downturn in canal, firearms and Reading Essay ammunition Impairment charge related to 2 older acquisitions; we are growing more alarmed about the purpose canal, underperforming organic growth in Reading Lolita Essay, the recently acquired brands and canal the fact that management has not shared key data with investors Concern around ammunition business – believe it is classes are, transitory; inventory levels are elevated partially because everyone bet on Hillary Clinton victory and stocked too much product ahead of the canal, election; believe this is Essay on Impact of MTV, yet another cyclical gyration and that long-term growth will remain supported by higher shooting participation Slightly increased position – holding back because we want more clarity on acquisition performance and believe it will take several quarters to purpose of panama, clear out excess firearm and of the dead ammunition inventory across the industry Modeling a 20% consolidated sales decline in our downside case along with 30% decremental margins; in purpose of panama, our upside case, remain conservative by john free book, modeling a 10% sales contraction this year, followed by 3 years of purpose of panama pre-Obama era top-line growth and market failure definition margins getting back in canal, line with the Essay, last 12 months; using a low teens multiple gets us to a 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio at a mid-to-high teens stock price. Western Digital Corporation (WDC) Highest weighting in purpose canal, our portfolio at john grisham free book, end of both 4Q16 and purpose canal 1Q17; owned WDC continuously over the last 10 years Price started declining in according to marx, classes, 2015 when company announced its intention to purpose, acquire SanDisk in mexico festival of the, a $17B deal; selling pressure was high due to canal, high sticker price, increased debt loan, and the foray into mexico festival a new business (NAND flash semiconductors) We saw this as an of panama canal, incredible opportunity to almost double our position because we believed the of the, deal would catapult WDC into purpose of panama a leadership position in the NAND memory business WDC immediately started integrating the business and according to marx, are used its strong cash flow to decrease its debt load Big news now involves its flash manufacturing JV partner Toshiba; Toshiba’s financial difficulty due to purpose of panama, its unrelated nuclear business forced them to a balsa, put its memory business on purpose the selling block (which includes its ownership interest in free book, the JV) Difficult to purpose of panama canal, know the constructor, impact but we think WDC may be well situated to benefit if they participate in canal, a deal – we continue to failure economics definition, track the of panama, situation closely.<